UW research: World population could be nearly 11 billion by 2100

A new statistical analysis shows the world population could reach nearly 11 billion by the end of the century, according to a United Nations report issued June 13. That’s about 800 million, or about 8 percent, more than the previous projection of 10.1 billion, issued in 2011.

The projected rise is mostly due to fertility in Africa, where the U.N. had expected birth rates to decline more quickly than they have.
World map gives graphic representation of population changes by 2100.

The expected population changes from now to 2100 are shown in the graphic. By far the largest expected increase is in Nigeria, projected to increase by 730 million people, from 184 million now to 914 million in 2100. Eight of the top ten increases are in Africa, with India in second place. The United States is eighth, with an expected increase of 146 million, or 46 percent, from 316 million now to 462 million in 2100. The largest projected decline is in China, expected to decrease by about 300 million, from 1.4 billion now to 1.1 billion in 2100.UW Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences

“The fertility decline in Africa has slowed down or stalled to a larger extent than we previously predicted, and as a result the African population will go up,” said Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology.

The current African population is about 1.1 billion and it is now expected to reach 4.2 billion, nearly a fourfold increase, by 2100.

Read more | Source washington.edu